Utawala wa kiuchumi
Autumn 2015 utabiri wa kiuchumi: Wastani ahueni licha ya changamoto
Kurejeshwa kwa uchumi katika ukanda wa euro na Jumuiya ya Ulaya kwa ujumla sasa ni mwaka wake wa tatu. Inapaswa kuendelea kwa kasi ya wastani mwaka ujao licha ya hali ngumu zaidi katika uchumi wa ulimwengu.
Kinyume na kuongezeka kwa bei ya mafuta, sera ya kifedha ya makazi na thamani dhaifu ya nje ya euro, urejesho wa uchumi mwaka huu umekuwa thabiti na umeenea katika nchi wanachama. Hata hivyo, imebaki polepole.
Athari za mambo mazuri zinapotea, wakati changamoto mpya zinaonekana, kama vile kupungua kwa uchumi unaokua wa soko na biashara ya kimataifa, na mivutano ya kijiografia inayoendelea. Iliyoungwa mkono na sababu zingine, kama utendaji bora wa ajira unaosaidia mapato halisi, hali rahisi ya mkopo, maendeleo katika utenguaji fedha na uwekezaji mkubwa, kasi ya ukuaji inatarajiwa kupinga changamoto mnamo 2016 na 2017. Katika nchi zingine, athari nzuri ya mageuzi ya kimuundo pia yatachangia kusaidia ukuaji zaidi.
Kwa ujumla, Pato la Taifa halisi la euro linatabiriwa kukua kwa 1.6% mnamo 2015, kuongezeka hadi 1.8% mnamo 2016 na 1.9% mnamo 2017. Kwa EU kwa ujumla, Pato la Taifa la kweli linatarajiwa kuongezeka kutoka 1.9% mwaka huu hadi 2.0% mnamo 2016 na 2.1% mwaka 2017.
Makamu wa Rais wa Mazungumzo ya Euro na Jamii Valdis Dombrovskis alisema: Utabiri wa leo wa kiuchumi unaonyesha uchumi wa eneo la euro unaendelea kupona wastani. Ukuaji unasaidiwa sana na sababu za muda mfupi kama bei ya chini ya mafuta, kiwango dhaifu cha ubadilishaji wa euro na sera ya kifedha ya makao ya ECB. Eneo la euro limeonyesha uthabiti kwa maendeleo ya nje, kama vile kupungua kwa biashara ya ulimwengu, na hii inatia moyo. Kudumisha na kuimarisha urejeshi kunahitaji kutumia fursa hizi za muda mfupi kufuata pesa za umma, kuongeza uwekezaji na kufanya mageuzi ya muundo ili kuongeza ushindani. Hii ni muhimu, haswa dhidi ya kuongezeka kwa uchumi wa ulimwengu, kuendelea na mivutano katika kitongoji chetu na hitaji la kudhibiti mzozo wa wakimbizi kwa uamuzi na kwa pamoja. "
Kamishna wa Masuala ya Uchumi na Fedha, Kamishna wa Ushuru na Ushuru wa Forodha, Pierre Moscovici alisema: “Uchumi wa Ulaya unabaki kwenye hali ya kupona. Kuangalia 2016, tunaona ukuaji unaongezeka na ukosefu wa ajira na upungufu wa fedha unapungua. Walakini maboresho bado yanaenea bila usawa: haswa katika ukanda wa euro, muunganiko haufanyiki haraka vya kutosha. Changamoto kubwa bado: uwekezaji wa kutosha, miundo ya kiuchumi ambayo inarudisha nyuma kazi na ukuaji, na viwango vya juu vya deni la kibinafsi na la umma. Hizi zinahitaji majibu ya kisera kwa ujasiri na yaliyodhamiriwa mnamo 2016, haswa katika hali ya kutokuwa na uhakika wa ulimwengu. "
Ufufuo umeenea katika nchi wanachama
Mahitaji ya ndani yanaimarika katika nchi nyingi wanachama wa ukanda wa euro mwaka huu na shughuli za kiuchumi zinapaswa kuongezeka kote EU mnamo 2016 na 2017. Matumizi ya kibinafsi yanakua kwa sababu ya kuongezeka kwa mapato ya kawaida na mfumuko wa bei duni. Uwekezaji pia unatarajiwa kuimarisha kiasi nyuma ya kuongezeka kwa mapato yanayoweza kutolewa kwa kaya, kuboresha kando ya faida ya mashirika, hali nzuri ya kifedha na mtazamo mzuri wa mahitaji.
Mageuzi ya zamani yanasaidia utendaji wenye nguvu wa soko la ajira
Soko la ajira linaendelea kuimarika kwa kasi ndogo na isiyo sawa katika Nchi Wanachama. Walakini, nchi zilizoathirika sana ambazo zimetekeleza mageuzi ya soko la ajira zinapaswa kuona faida zaidi katika ukuaji wa ajira. Katika ukanda wa euro, ajira inatarajiwa kukua kwa 0.9% mwaka huu na ijayo, na kuchukua hadi 1% mnamo 2017. Katika EU, ajira inapaswa kuongezeka kwa 1.0% mwaka huu na 0.9% mnamo 2016 na 2017. Kwa ujumla. , ukosefu wa ajira unatarajiwa kuendelea kupungua polepole tu, na tofauti kubwa kati ya nchi wanachama. Katika ukanda wa euro, inatabiriwa kushuka hadi 10.6% mwaka ujao na 10.3% mwaka 2017 kutoka 11.0% mwaka huu, wakati katika EU kwa ujumla, utabiri unaonyesha kuanguka kutoka 9.5% mwaka huu hadi 9.2% na 8.9% katika 2016 na 2017 mtawaliwa.
Mtazamo wa fedha unaendelea kuboreshwa
Mnamo mwaka wa 2015, jumla ya nakisi ya Pato la Taifa ya euro inatarajiwa kushuka hadi 2.0%, shukrani kwa juhudi za zamani za ujumuishaji wa fedha, uimarishaji wa shughuli za kiuchumi na, kwa kiwango kidogo, matumizi ya chini ya riba. Kufikia 2017, uwiano wa nakisi ya Pato la Taifa wa euro inapaswa kushuka hadi 1.5%. Msimamo wa kifedha wa eneo la euro unatarajiwa kubaki upande wowote. Uwiano wa deni la euro na ukanda wa euro unatarajiwa kushuka kutoka kilele chake cha 94.5% mnamo 2014 kufikia 91.3% mnamo 2017. Uhaba wa GDP kwa EU kwa jumla unatabiriwa kushuka hadi 1.6% mnamo 2017 kutoka utabiri 2.5% mwaka huu, wakati uwiano wake wa deni na Pato la Taifa unatarajiwa kushuka hadi 85.8% mnamo 2017 kutoka 87.8% inayotarajiwa mwaka huu.
Bei ya chini ya mafuta inasababisha mfumuko wa bei kwa muda mfupi
Kushuka kwa kasi kwa mafuta na bei zingine za bidhaa kulisababisha mfumko wa bei katika eneo la euro na EU katika eneo hasi mnamo Septemba. Walakini, hii inaficha ukweli kwamba ukuaji wa mshahara, kuimarisha matumizi ya kibinafsi na kupungua kwa pengo la pato kunaanza kuongeza shinikizo kwa bei. Mfumuko wa bei wa kila mwaka unatarajiwa kuongezeka kutoka 0.1% katika ukanda wa euro na 0% katika EU mwaka huu, hadi 1.0% na 1.1% mtawaliwa mwaka ujao, na hadi 1.6% katika maeneo yote mnamo 2017.
Kupungua kwa uchumi wa dunia kunakwamisha mahitaji ya mauzo ya nje ya EU
Mtazamo wa ukuaji wa ulimwengu na biashara ya ulimwengu umeporomoka sana tangu chemchemi, kwa sababu ya kushuka kwa uchumi wa soko linaloibuka, haswa Uchina. Uchumi unaoibuka wa soko unatarajiwa kufikia kiboreshaji chao mwaka huu na kuanza kupata nafuu mnamo 2016.
Hadi sasa, mauzo ya nje ya eneo la euro kwa kiasi kikubwa yameepushwa na kuzorota kwa biashara ya ulimwengu, haswa kutokana na kushuka kwa thamani kwa zamani kwa euro. Walakini, ukuaji wa mauzo ya nje unatarajiwa kupungua mnamo 2016 kabla ya kuongezeka kidogo mnamo 2017.
Ziada ya sasa ya akaunti huongezeka
Ziada ya akaunti ya sasa ya eneo la euro inapaswa kuongezeka mwaka huu, kwa sababu ya nakisi ya chini ya biashara ya mafuta na kuboresha masharti ya biashara, lakini pia utunzaji wa ziada kubwa katika nchi kadhaa za Wanachama na marekebisho ya upungufu wa zamani kwa wengine. Ziada ya akaunti ya sasa inatarajiwa kupungua kidogo mnamo 2017 bei ya mafuta ikiongezeka na masharti ya biashara kuzorota.
Kuwasili kwa wanaotafuta hifadhi kunaweza kuwa na athari ndogo, nzuri za kiuchumi
Utabiri huu hutoa tathmini ya kwanza ya athari za kiuchumi za kuwasili kwa idadi kubwa ya wanaotafuta hifadhi katika EU. Wakati kwa muda mfupi, matumizi ya ziada ya umma yanaongeza Pato la Taifa, athari nzuri zaidi kwa ukuaji inatarajiwa katika kipindi cha kati kutoka kuongezeka kwa usambazaji wa wafanyikazi, mradi sera sahihi zipo ili kuwezesha upatikanaji wa soko la ajira. Kwa EU kwa ujumla, athari za ukuaji ni ndogo, lakini inaweza kuwa kubwa zaidi katika nchi zingine wanachama.
Hatari kwa utabiri ni za nje na hasi hasi
Hatari zinazohusiana na mtazamo wa uchumi ulimwenguni zimeongezeka. Ukuaji wa chini katika masoko yanayoibuka, haswa marekebisho yanayosumbua zaidi Uchina, na athari za urekebishaji unaotarajiwa wa sera ya fedha ya Merika kwenye masoko yanayoibuka, inaweza kuwa na athari mbaya zaidi kwa shughuli za uwekezaji na uchumi huko Uropa kuliko inavyotarajiwa sasa.
Historia
Utabiri huu unazingatia data na sababu zote zinazopatikana, pamoja na mawazo juu ya sera za serikali, hadi tarehe 22 Oktoba 2015. Sera tu zilizotangazwa kwa uaminifu na zilizoainishwa kwa kina zinajumuishwa na makadirio hayana mabadiliko ya sera.
Utabiri huu pia unategemea seti ya mawazo ya nje kuhusu viwango vya ubadilishaji, viwango vya riba na bei za bidhaa. Nambari zinazotumiwa zinaonyesha matarajio ya soko yanayotokana na masoko ya derivatives wakati wa utabiri.
Tume inapaswa kusasisha utabiri wake wa uchumi mnamo Februari 2016.
Habari zaidi
Utabiri wa Kiuchumi Ulaya - Autumn 2015
Utabiri wa Uchumi wa Vuli - tovuti
Kufuata DG ECFIN juu ya Twitter: ecfin
Kufuata Makamu wa Rais Dombrovskis juu ya Twitter: VDombrovskis
Kufuata Kamishna Moscovici juu ya Twitter: Pierremoscovici
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | ||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | ||||||
(a) Pato halisi la ndani (% mabadiliko) | ||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | |||||
2007-11 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
germany | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Estonia | -0.9 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
Ireland | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
Ugiriki | -3.3 | -3.2 | 0.7 | -1.4 | -1.3 | 2.7 |
Hispania | 0.0 | -1.7 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Ufaransa | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Italia | -0.6 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Cyprus | 1.6 | -5.9 | -2.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Latvia | -1.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
Lithuania | 0.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
Luxemburg | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
Malta | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
Uholanzi | 0.9 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Austria | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Ureno | -0.1 | -1.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Slovenia | 0.7 | -1.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
Slovakia | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
Finland | 0.5 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
Eneo la Euro | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Bulgaria | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | 1.5 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
Denmark | -0.5 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
Croatia | -0.5 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Hungary | -0.6 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
Poland | 4.5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
Romania | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
Sweden | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
Uingereza | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
EU | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
USA | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
Japan | -0.1 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(b) Jumla ya Uwekezaji (% mabadiliko) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 1.0 | 0.2 | -1.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 3.7 |
germany | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
Estonia | -4.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | -3.1 | -3.9 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Ireland | -8.5 | 8.6 | -6.6 | 14.3 | 16.8 | 11.9 | 8.8 |
Ugiriki | -9.9 | -23.5 | -9.4 | -2.8 | -10.2 | -2.0 | 14.7 |
Hispania | -5.9 | -7.1 | -2.5 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 |
Ufaransa | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 4.5 |
Italia | -2.9 | -9.3 | -6.6 | -3.5 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
Cyprus | -2.7 | -20.5 | -15.2 | -18.0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
Latvia | -5.9 | 14.4 | -6.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 4.5 |
Lithuania | -2.6 | -1.8 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 7.0 |
Luxemburg | 4.6 | -0.3 | -7.2 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
Malta | -2.7 | 4.5 | -0.7 | 9.1 | 17.1 | -1.0 | 1.1 |
Uholanzi | -0.1 | -6.3 | -4.4 | 3.5 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
Austria | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
Ureno | -3.7 | -16.6 | -5.1 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 5.5 |
Slovenia | -5.1 | -8.8 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | -1.8 | 5.1 |
Slovakia | 1.7 | -9.2 | -1.1 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
Finland | 0.3 | -2.2 | -5.2 | -3.3 | -2.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
Eneo la Euro | -1.3 | -3.3 | -2.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 4.4 |
Bulgaria | -2.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 0.2 | -2.4 | 1.7 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | 1.4 | -3.2 | -2.7 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 3.3 |
Denmark | -4.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
Croatia | -3.7 | -3.3 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
Hungary | -2.9 | -4.4 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 2.2 | -3.2 | 2.5 |
Poland | 6.6 | -1.8 | -1.1 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
Romania | 2.4 | 0.1 | -5.4 | -7.2 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 6.0 |
Sweden | 1.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
Uingereza | -1.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 4.8 |
EU | -1.2 | -2.5 | -1.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
USA | -3.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
Japan | -2.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(c) Ukuaji wa ajira (%) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 1.1 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
germany | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Estonia | -1.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
Ireland | -2.0 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Ugiriki | -1.5 | -6.3 | -3.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 2.0 |
Hispania | -1.6 | -4.4 | -3.3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
Ufaransa | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Italia | -0.6 | -1.4 | -2.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Cyprus | 1.1 | -4.2 | -5.2 | -1.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Latvia | -3.3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | -1.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
Lithuania | -2.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Luxemburg | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
Malta | 1.9 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Uholanzi | 0.7 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Austria | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Ureno | -1.1 | -4.1 | -2.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Slovenia | 0.1 | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Slovakia | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Finland | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Eneo la Euro | 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Bulgaria | -0.5 | -2.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Denmark | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Croatia | -0.6 | -3.6 | -2.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
Hungary | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Poland | 1.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Romania | -0.5 | -4.8 | -0.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Sweden | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Uingereza | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
EU | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
USA | -0.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Japan | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(d) Kiwango cha ukosefu wa ajira (%) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 7.9 |
germany | 7.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
Estonia | 10.5 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.6 |
Ireland | 10.3 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 7.9 |
Ugiriki | 11.3 | 24.5 | 27.5 | 26.5 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 24.4 |
Hispania | 15.7 | 24.8 | 26.1 | 24.5 | 22.3 | 20.5 | 19.0 |
Ufaransa | 8.6 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.2 |
Italia | 7.5 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 11.6 |
Cyprus | 5.4 | 11.9 | 15.9 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 14.6 | 13.3 |
Latvia | 13.4 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 |
Lithuania | 11.4 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
Luxemburg | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
Malta | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 |
Uholanzi | 4.5 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
Austria | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
Ureno | 10.7 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 10.8 |
Slovenia | 6.1 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 8.7 |
Slovakia | 12.2 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 9.6 |
Finland | 7.5 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.4 |
Eneo la Euro | 9.0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 10.3 |
Bulgaria | 8.2 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | 6.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
Denmark | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 |
Croatia | 10.6 | 16.0 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 14.7 |
Hungary | 9.5 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.2 |
Poland | 8.8 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
Romania | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
Sweden | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.4 |
Uingereza | 6.9 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
EU | 8.5 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 8.9 |
USA | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
Japan | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(e) Mfumko wa bei ya Mtumiaji (1) (%) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
germany | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
Estonia | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
Ireland | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Ugiriki | 3.3 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Hispania | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
Ufaransa | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Italia | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
Cyprus | 2.6 | 3.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -1.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
Latvia | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Lithuania | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
Luxemburg | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Malta | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Uholanzi | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Austria | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Ureno | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Slovenia | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
Slovakia | 2.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Finland | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
Eneo la Euro | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Bulgaria | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.4 | -1.6 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | 2.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Denmark | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Croatia | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
Hungary | 5.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
Poland | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Romania | 6.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 2.3 |
Sweden | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Uingereza | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
EU | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
USA | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
Japan | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
(1) HICP kwa nchi wanachama, CPI vinginevyo.
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(f) salio la akaunti ya sasa (% ya Pato la Taifa) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
germany | 6.0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
Estonia | -3.7 | -2.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.1 |
Ireland | -3.6 | -1.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 4.7 |
Ugiriki | -13.3 | -4.3 | -2.1 | -2.9 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 |
Hispania | -6.1 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Ufaransa | -1.6 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.3 | -1.3 | -1.6 | -2.2 |
Italia | -2.5 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Cyprus | -10.2 | -5.1 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -3.2 | -3.0 |
Latvia | -5.4 | -3.5 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
Lithuania | -6.0 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 3.9 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
Luxemburg | 7.6 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
Malta | -3.7 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
Uholanzi | 7.3 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 9.6 |
Austria | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
Ureno | -9.7 | -2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Slovenia | -2.2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
Slovakia | -5.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
Finland | 1.8 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
Eneo la Euro | 0.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
Bulgaria | -13.8 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | -4.6 | -2.2 | -1.1 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
Denmark | 3.8 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
Croatia | -4.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
Hungary | -2.8 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
Poland | -5.3 | -3.2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -1.5 |
Romania | -7.6 | -4.3 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.9 | -2.6 |
Sweden | 7.4 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
Uingereza | -2.7 | -3.3 | -4.5 | -5.1 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.4 |
EU | -0.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
USA | -3.7 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.7 |
Japan | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(g) Usawa wa jumla wa serikali (% ya Pato la Taifa) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | -2.9 | -4.1 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.3 |
germany | -1.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Estonia | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Ireland | -13.1 | -8.0 | -5.7 | -3.9 | -2.2 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
Ugiriki | -10.7 | -8.8 | -12.4 | -3.6 | -4.6 | -3.6 | -2.2 |
Hispania | -6.4 | -10.4 | -6.9 | -5.9 | -4.7 | -3.6 | -2.6 |
Ufaransa | -5.0 | -4.8 | -4.1 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -3.4 | -3.3 |
Italia | -3.4 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.3 | -1.6 |
Cyprus | -2.4 | -5.8 | -4.9 | -8.9 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Latvia | -5.1 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
Lithuania | -5.8 | -3.1 | -2.6 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
Luxemburg | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Malta | -3.1 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -2.1 | -1.7 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
Uholanzi | -2.9 | -3.9 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.1 | -1.5 | -1.2 |
Austria | -3.0 | -2.2 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.3 |
Ureno | -7.0 | -5.7 | -4.8 | -7.2 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.5 |
Slovenia | -3.9 | -4.1 | -15.0 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -2.0 |
Slovakia | -4.7 | -4.2 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -2.0 |
Finland | 0.6 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -2.7 | -2.3 |
Eneo la Euro | -3.9 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.5 |
Bulgaria | -1.3 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -5.8 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | -3.1 | -4.0 | -1.3 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.3 | -1.1 |
Denmark | 0.1 | -3.6 | -1.3 | 1.5 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -1.7 |
Croatia | -4.9 | -5.3 | -5.4 | -5.6 | -4.9 | -4.7 | -4.1 |
Hungary | -4.7 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -2.0 |
Poland | -5.0 | -3.7 | -4.0 | -3.3 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
Romania | -6.0 | -3.2 | -2.2 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -2.8 | -3.7 |
Sweden | 0.9 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
Uingereza | -7.2 | -8.3 | -5.7 | -5.7 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -1.9 |
EU | -4.2 | -4.3 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -1.6 |
USA | -9.2 | -8.8 | -5.3 | -4.9 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -3.2 |
Japan | -6.0 | -8.7 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -6.6 | -5.7 | -5.1 |
UTABIRI WA AUTUMN 2015 | |||||||
Viashiria Vikuu VYA UCHUMI 2007 - 2017 | |||||||
(h) Deni kubwa la serikali (% ya Pato la Taifa) | |||||||
Wastani wa miaka 5 | Utabiri wa msimu wa vuli 2015 * | ||||||
2007-11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Ubelgiji | 96.1 | 104.1 | 105.1 | 106.7 | 106.7 | 107.1 | 106.1 |
germany | 72.1 | 79.7 | 77.4 | 74.9 | 71.4 | 68.5 | 65.6 |
Estonia | 5.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 9.2 |
Ireland | 64.9 | 120.2 | 120.0 | 107.5 | 99.8 | 95.4 | 93.7 |
Ugiriki | 131.5 | 159.4 | 177.0 | 178.6 | 194.8 | 199.7 | 195.6 |
Hispania | 51.4 | 85.4 | 93.7 | 99.3 | 100.8 | 101.3 | 100.4 |
Ufaransa | 75.7 | 89.6 | 92.3 | 95.6 | 96.5 | 97.1 | 97.4 |
Italia | 109.2 | 123.2 | 128.8 | 132.3 | 133.0 | 132.2 | 130.0 |
Cyprus | 55.0 | 79.3 | 102.5 | 108.2 | 106.7 | 98.7 | 94.6 |
Latvia | 30.8 | 41.4 | 39.1 | 40.6 | 38.3 | 41.1 | 37.6 |
Lithuania | 26.6 | 39.8 | 38.8 | 40.7 | 42.9 | 40.8 | 42.5 |
Luxemburg | 15.1 | 22.1 | 23.4 | 23.0 | 22.3 | 23.9 | 23.5 |
Malta | 66.1 | 67.6 | 69.6 | 68.3 | 65.9 | 63.2 | 61.0 |
Uholanzi | 54.8 | 66.4 | 67.9 | 68.2 | 68.6 | 67.9 | 66.9 |
Austria | 75.5 | 81.6 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 86.6 | 85.7 | 84.3 |
Ureno | 86.3 | 126.2 | 129.0 | 130.2 | 128.2 | 124.7 | 121.3 |
Slovenia | 32.7 | 53.7 | 70.8 | 80.8 | 84.2 | 80.9 | 78.3 |
Slovakia | 35.6 | 51.9 | 54.6 | 53.5 | 52.7 | 52.6 | 52.2 |
Finland | 40.8 | 52.9 | 55.6 | 59.3 | 62.5 | 64.5 | 65.7 |
Eneo la Euro | 76.5 | 91.3 | 93.4 | 94.5 | 94.0 | 92.9 | 91.3 |
Bulgaria | 14.7 | 17.6 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 31.8 | 32.8 | 33.6 |
Jamhuri ya Czech | 33.7 | 44.7 | 45.2 | 42.7 | 41.0 | 41.0 | 40.5 |
Denmark | 38.1 | 45.6 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 40.2 | 39.3 | 38.3 |
Croatia | 48.9 | 69.2 | 80.8 | 85.1 | 89.2 | 91.7 | 92.9 |
Hungary | 75.3 | 78.3 | 76.8 | 76.2 | 75.8 | 74.5 | 72.6 |
Poland | 49.7 | 54.0 | 55.9 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.4 | 53.5 |
Romania | 22.6 | 37.4 | 38.0 | 39.9 | 39.4 | 40.9 | 42.8 |
Sweden | 38.0 | 37.2 | 39.8 | 44.9 | 44.7 | 44.0 | 43.3 |
Uingereza | 63.9 | 85.3 | 86.2 | 88.2 | 88.3 | 88.0 | 86.9 |
EU | 70.4 | 85.2 | 87.3 | 88.6 | 87.8 | 87.1 | 85.8 |
* Kama kawaida, utabiri umewekwa, pamoja na mambo mengine, dhana ya kiufundi ya 'hakuna mabadiliko ya sera'.
Hii inamaanisha kuwa hatua maalum za sera, haswa katika uwanja wa bajeti, ambazo bado hazijafichuliwa hazizingatiwi.
Kama matokeo, makadirio ya 2017 kimsingi ni kuongezea mwenendo wa sasa.
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